Market Update (Fueled by Economists)
Week of November 10, 2025
If you’re catching this update for the first time, our goal is to provide a quick, 30,000-foot view of what’s happening in the mortgage and housing markets each week — helping you stay informed about where rates and trends may be heading.
🏦 Rates and Market Overview
As of November 3rd, the 30-year fixed rate (at zero points) was 0.125% higher compared to the prior week. While rates inched up slightly, underlying data continues to support a stable, balanced housing environment heading into year-end.
💼 Job Market: Modest Growth After Two-Month Dip
October marked a rebound for private payrolls after back-to-back months of losses. According to ADP, the private sector added 42,000 new jobs, signaling modest but meaningful progress in employment trends.
- Who’s Hiring: Large firms led the gains (+73,000 jobs), while small (-10,000) and medium-sized (-21,000) businesses continued to trim payrolls.
- Where the Growth Happened: Sectors such as trade, transportation, and utilities added 47,000 positions, while roughly half of industries still saw declines.
- Wages: Pay growth remained steady, up 6.7% for job switchers and 4.5% for job stayers — showing a labor market that’s cooling but still balanced.
Overall, these figures suggest that while the hiring pace remains slow, the economy is avoiding a major contraction in employment.
🏠 Housing Market: Stability Amid Rate Adjustments
Despite a 0.2% dip in home prices in September, values remain 1.2% higher year-over-year, and analysts are optimistic. Cotality now forecasts a 4.1% rise in home prices over the next 12 months, fueled by easing rate expectations and steady demand.
Buyers who stepped back earlier in the year due to affordability concerns may see renewed opportunities if rates stabilize further — especially in markets where inventory remains tight.
🧭 What’s Next
Several key reports were delayed due to the government shutdown, but upcoming data to watch includes:
- ICE Home Price Index (to confirm September’s housing performance)
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (for sentiment and hiring trends)
- Treasury Auctions: 10-year on Wednesday and 30-year on Thursday — both of which could influence rate movement heading into mid-November.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted that another December rate cut isn’t guaranteed, reinforcing the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach as inflation data catches up.
💬 Bottom Line
A modest jobs rebound and stable housing outlook point toward a market that’s finding its footing. While rates nudged slightly higher, the overall forecast for the next year remains positive — especially for home values.
If you’re watching the market or planning your next move, now’s a good time to stay in touch with your loan professional to explore options before potential shifts in December’s Fed meeting.
Cheers,
Drew & Team
