As we step into the new year, the housing market is showing encouraging signs of renewed activity and stability. This week’s insights offer a high-level look at mortgage rate movement, housing trends, and key economic indicators shaping early 2026.
🏦 Mortgage Rate Overview
- 30-Year Fixed Rate (0 points) — Flat week-over-week
- Rates held steady since Monday, December 29th, reflecting a relatively calm start to the year in rate markets.
While rates remained unchanged, several housing indicators point toward improving market momentum heading into the first quarter.
🏡 Housing Market Highlights
📈 Pending Home Sales Beat Expectations
Pending home sales rose:
- +3.3% month-over-month (November vs. October)
- +2.6% year-over-year
This marks the strongest reading in nearly three years — a positive signal for upcoming existing-home closings.
Buyers are gradually re-entering the market, supported by improving affordability conditions and more available inventory.
💵 Affordability Trends Are Improving
According to NAR, several factors are helping pull buyers back in:
- Lower mortgage rates
- Wages rising faster than home prices
- Gradual inventory growth
This shift is contributing to stronger buyer engagement as we begin 2026.
🏠 Home Prices Show Early Upward Momentum
The latest reports indicate modest but meaningful home price appreciation:
Case-Shiller Index
- +0.4% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted)
- +1.4% annual increase
- Marks the first acceleration in year-over-year appreciation since January
FHFA Price Index
- +0.4% month-over-month
- +1.7% year-over-year
- Reflects slightly stronger gains among conventionally financed homes
Together, these trends point to a market regaining traction — not overheating, but strengthening.
👷 Labor Market Snapshot
📉 Jobless Claims Decline
- Initial unemployment claims fell to 199,000
- Continuing claims dropped to 1.866 million
- Both figures came in below expectations
However — context matters.
🕑 Seasonal + Timing Effects Likely at Play
Analysts note these declines likely reflect:
- Holiday-related timing shifts
- Delayed layoffs
- Expiring benefit eligibility for workers affected earlier in the year
In short, the improvement in claims does not yet signal a major labor-market shift — but it does help reinforce economic stability entering Q1.
🔎 What We’re Watching Next
The week ahead will be shaped by two key developments:
- 📅 Major Labor Market Reports, including Friday’s employment release
- 🏗️ Delayed new-home construction data for September & October
Together, these updates will help clarify whether recent housing momentum continues into early 2026.
If you have questions about how these trends may affect buying, selling, refinancing, or strategy heading into the new year — we’re here and happy to help.
Cheers,
Drew & Team
