Rate change (30 yr fixed) since Mon, Sept 29th: zero movement to par (0 point) market rate
Summary: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) held steady, jobless claims improved slightly, and housing data showed early signs of strength as mortgage rates eased.
Last week:
Inflation Holds Steady: August’s PCE index rose 0.3%, lifting annual inflation to 2.7%, while core PCE remained unchanged at 2.9%. The Fed faces a balancing act between lingering inflation and softening job data after its September rate cut.
Jobless Claims Improve: Initial claims fell to 218,000, marking two straight weeks of decline, though continuing claims remain elevated above 1.9 million — signaling a slower job market recovery.
Existing Home Sales Flat: August resales slipped 0.2%, but inventory is up 12% year-over-year. Lower mortgage rates should help boost future activity.
New Home Sales Surge: Sales jumped 21% in August to an 800,000 annual pace — the strongest since early 2022 — reflecting rate relief and solid demand despite limited move-in-ready supply.
GDP Revised Higher: Q2 growth was upgraded to 3.8%, showing a rebound from Q1’s decline as imports normalized and consumer spending strengthened.
Looking Ahead: This week features Pending Home Sales and home price data, followed by labor reports including JOLTS, ADP payrolls, and Friday’s September Jobs Report — key indicators for the Fed’s next rate decision on October 29.
As always, we’ll be on standby to help when needed.
Cheers,
Drew (& Team)
