Rate change (30 yr fixed) since Mon, Oct 6th: market rate (0 points) is .125% lower
Summary: home prices are showing renewed strength as lower mortgage rates boost demand and tight inventory supports values, with forecasts calling for nearly 4% appreciation over the next year. Meanwhile, Fed minutes reveal division among policymakers over future rate moves as inflation stays above target, the labor market softens, and key economic data remain delayed due to the government shutdown.
Last week:
- Home Prices & Forecast
- Home values slipped 0.3% in August but remained up 1.3% year-over-year (Cotality).
- September prices rose 0.17% monthly and 1.2% annually (ICE), marking the first acceleration in 8 months.
- Projecting a 3.9% rise in home values over the next 12 months (Cotality)
- Lower mortgage rates have boosted affordability to the best level in 2.5 years, bringing buyers back.
- Tight inventory from fewer listings and more sellers withdrawing homes is supporting prices.
- Federal Reserve
- Meeting minutes reveal deep division among officials over future rate moves.
- Inflation remains above target, but the labor market is softening.
- Government shutdown has delayed key inflation and jobs data, complicating decisions ahead of the Oct. 29 meeting.
- Chair Powell said there’s “no risk-free path” forward.
- Retail Sales
- September spending cooled after two strong months; 5 of 9 retail categories declined.
- Year-over-year growth remained solid, led by online, sporting goods, and apparel sales.
- With official data delayed, the NRF report may guide Fed expectations.
Looking Ahead: Government shutdown delays likely for inflation, retail, and housing reports. NAHB homebuilder confidence survey expected Thursday.
As always, we’ll be on standby to help when needed.
Cheers,
Drew (& Team)
