📉 Mortgage Rate Movement (30-Year Fixed)
Change since Monday, Nov. 17: Flat — no movement
Rates held their ground, even as labor and housing data painted a complex picture of a cooling yet still functioning economy.
📰 Key Economic Highlights: Labor Cooling, Housing Showing Life
Stronger—but Complicated—Job Growth
- September added 119,000 new jobs, beating expectations.
- However, downward revisions showed August at a net loss of 4,000 and June down 13,000—marking the first time since 2020 that two months posted declines.
- Unemployment ticked up slightly, from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Government Shutdown = Delayed Data
Due to the recent government shutdown, the September jobs report was delayed, and the BLS will release only partial October data—alongside full November data—on December 16.
This matters because it comes after the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, meaning policymakers must vote without a complete jobs picture.
Fed Outlook: Divided on a December Cut
The Fed has already cut rates in September and October, but members remain split on whether to reduce rates again at the December meeting.
The balancing act:
- Inflation risk
vs. - Clear signs of labor-market cooling
Jobless Claims: Stable but Elevated
- Initial Claims have stayed ~220,000–235,000.
- Continuing Claims have held above 1.9 million since mid-May, signaling that workers are taking longer to secure new jobs.
🏡 Housing Market Update: Activity Picks Up
Existing Home Sales
- Up 1.2% in October
- Up 1.7% year-over-year
- Inventory remains 11% higher than last year
With lower mortgage rates, future reports may show further improvement.
Homebuilder Confidence Is Rising
Confidence nudged up to 38 in November, the strongest reading since April.
Builders remain cautiously optimistic about 2026, even as economic uncertainty lingers.
📅 What to Watch Next Week
We’re expecting a wave of delayed and fresh data, including:
- Wholesale inflation (PPI) – delayed September data
- Retail sales – delayed September data
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- FHFA House Price Index
- Pending Home Sales (NAR)
This combination will give us clearer insight into the trajectory of housing demand, consumer strength, and inflation pressures heading into the final stretch of the year.
🙋♂️ We’re Here When You Need Us
As always, our team is on standby to help you navigate opportunities, answer questions, or review scenarios as the market continues to shift.
Cheers,
Drew & Team
