If this is your first time joining us—welcome! Each week, we offer a high-level overview of mortgage rate trends, economic indicators, and market-moving updates to help you stay informed and ahead of the curve.
🔹 Mortgage Rate Snapshot
Change since Monday, January 19th (30-year fixed):
📈 +0.125% (higher week-over-week)
While rates nudged slightly higher this week, markets remain in a “wait and see” mode as investors assess the latest data on inflation, employment, and economic growth.
📰 Market Highlights
🧮 Inflation Cooling, but Gradually
- Core & Headline PCE Inflation (Oct & Nov):
Both rose by 0.2%, keeping the annual PCE inflation rate at 2.8%—right in line with expectations. - This supports the idea that inflation is moderating, but not fast enough to guarantee aggressive Fed rate cuts just yet.
🏦 Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
- The Fed remains data-dependent and cautious.
- While the labor market is showing signs of easing, inflation’s persistence is keeping policymakers in a holding pattern for now.
🏠 Housing Market Trends
- Pending Home Sales:
Dropped 9.3% in December and 3% year-over-year, impacted by tight inventory and seasonal slowdowns. - Inventory Levels:
Fell to 1.18 million homes nationwide—one of the lowest points of 2025—which may be discouraging new buyers even as some markets see increased closings.
📈 Economic Growth Surprises to the Upside
- Q3 2025 GDP:
Grew at a 4.4% annualized rate, the strongest since Q3 2023. - Key drivers included:
- Robust consumer spending
- Strong exports
- Increases in business investment
- Continued government spending
💼 Labor Market Mixed Signals
- Initial Jobless Claims:
Remain historically low, signaling few layoffs. - Continuing Claims:
Elevated, pointing to slower reemployment—possibly reflecting the shift toward gig and contract work in today’s evolving job market.
🔍 What to Watch This Week
The spotlight this week is on the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting, where markets will be looking for any signals about future rate cuts or shifts in tone.
Key data releases to monitor:
- Home Price Indexes
- Jobless Claims
- Producer Price Index (PPI) – a key inflation gauge closely watched by the Fed
As always, we’re here to help you navigate the mortgage landscape—whether you’re tracking rates, working with buyers, or simply staying informed.
Stay tuned, and we’ll keep you posted.
Cheers,
Drew & Team
