{"id":594961,"date":"2024-02-27T18:42:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T18:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=594961"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:51","slug":"newsletter-2-26-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/27\/newsletter-2-26-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter &#8211; 2\/26\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Week of February 19, 2024 in Review<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Closings on existing homes picked up last month, while recent commentary shows that Fed members remain cautious about cutting rates too soon. Read on for these stories and more:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Existing Home Sales Rebound in January<\/li>\n<li>Fed in No Hurry to Cut Rates<\/li>\n<li>Tame Initial Jobless Claims During Key Data Week<\/li>\n<li>Recession Forecast Softened<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Existing Home Sales Rebound in January<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-594962\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024.png\" alt=\"existing home sales\" width=\"704\" height=\"468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024.png 922w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-400x266.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-600x399.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024-800x532.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Existing Home Sales rose 3.1% from December to January to a 4-million-unit annualized pace, with December\u2019s sales also revised higher per the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). When compared to January 2023, sales were down 1.7%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> This report measures closings on existing homes in January and likely reflects people shopping for homes in November and December, when rates backed off from their peak. NAR\u2019s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, added that \u201clistings were modestly higher, and home buyers are taking advantage of lower mortgage rates compared to late last year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Any increase in listings is a positive sign for much needed supply. There were just 1.01 million homes available for sale at the end of January, which is below healthy levels at just a 3 months\u2019 supply of homes at the current sales pace. Meanwhile, demand for homes remains strong, with Yun adding that \u201cmultiple offers are common on mid-priced homes, and many homes were still sold within a month.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This ongoing dynamic of tight supply and strong demand is a key reason why home values continue to rise and why now provides great opportunities to take advantage of appreciation gains.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fed in No Hurry to Cut Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The minutes from the Fed\u2019s January meeting showed that members were generally optimistic that their policy moves had succeeded in lowering inflation. Members also felt they had reached their peak Fed Funds Rate for this cycle.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for overnight borrowing for banks and it is not the same as mortgage rates. The Fed\u2019s eleven hikes between March 2022 and July 2023 were made to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation seen over the last few years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Fed members want to see more data before they ease monetary policy, and they don\u2019t expect to begin cutting rates until they have \u201cgained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.\u201d This cautious approach from January\u2019s meeting has been echoed more recently by several Fed members, including Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.<\/p>\n<p>Note that the Fed\u2019s favored inflation measure, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), declined to 2.9% annually as of the latest report for December. January\u2019s PCE report will be released this Thursday, and it will be especially important to monitor the latest numbers after both the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes reported hotter than expected inflation for last month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tame Initial Jobless Claims During Key Data Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Initial Jobless Claims, which measures the number of people filing new unemployment claims, declined by 12,000 to 201,000 in the latest week. Continuing Claims also fell by 27,000, with 1.862 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Initial Jobless Claims are still relatively low, while Continuing Claims have been trending higher since reaching a low of 1.658 million in September. The dynamic we\u2019ve been seeing in the labor sector continues, where employers are trying to hold on to workers, but once people are let go it\u2019s more challenging for them to find new employment.<\/p>\n<p>Note that this was an important real-time report because it includes the sample week that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will use in the modeling for their job growth estimates for February\u2019s Jobs Report. Could the low number of initial unemployment claims skew the headline job growth number in a higher direction?<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is also closely watching employment data as they continue to weigh monetary policy. Members will be carefully analyzing the headline job growth figure when February\u2019s Jobs Report is released on March 8.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Recession Forecast Softened<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Conference Board released their latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is a forward-looking index that takes a broad look at the economy and tracks where it\u2019s heading in the near term. January brought a 0.4% drop, marking the 22nd consecutive month of declines. The last time the index fell 22 straight months was in 2007 to 2009, during the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Despite January\u2019s decline, the Conference Board softened their tone on recession expectations. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, explained, \u201cWhile the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Family Hack of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Chocolate and peanut butter make for a perfect pair, and these Chocolate Peanut Butter Balls from the Food Network are the perfect way to mark National Peanut Butter Lovers Day on March 1. Yields 24.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In a large bowl, beat 1 cup confectioners\u2019 sugar, 1\/2 cup creamy peanut butter, 2 tablespoons unsalted butter (room temperature), 1 teaspoon vanilla extract and 1\/4 teaspoon kosher salt with an electric mixer until combined and smooth.<\/li>\n<li>Roll the mixture into 24-equal sized balls (about 1 teaspoon each) and place them on a small baking sheet.<\/li>\n<li>Chill in the freezer until firm, about 15 minutes.<\/li>\n<li>Heat 6 ounces of roughly chopped bittersweet chocolate and 2 tablespoons unsalted butter in a microwave safe bowl in 20 second intervals, stirring between each with a rubber spatula until melted and smooth.<\/li>\n<li>Using two forks, dip each peanut butter ball into the melted chocolate. Coat evenly and tap off any excess chocolate.<\/li>\n<li>Place balls back onto the baking sheet and chill in the refrigerator until chocolate is firm and set, about 1 hour.<\/li>\n<li>Serve chilled and refrigerate any extras in an airtight container.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">If you have any questions please contact me!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of February 19, 2024 in Review Closings on existing homes picked up last month, while recent commentary shows that Fed members remain cautious about cutting rates too soon. Read on for these stories and more: Existing Home Sales Rebound in January Fed in No Hurry to Cut Rates Tame Initial Jobless Claims During Key [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":594962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-594961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter - 2\/26\/2024 - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Closings on existing homes picked up last month, while recent commentary shows that Fed members remain cautious about cutting rates too soon.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/27\/newsletter-2-26-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter - 2\/26\/2024 - Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Closings on existing homes picked up last month, while recent commentary shows that Fed members remain cautious about cutting rates too soon.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/02\/27\/newsletter-2-26-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-27T18:42:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T19:39:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/exisiting-home-sales-feb-2024.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"922\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"613\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/02\\\/27\\\/newsletter-2-26-2024\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/02\\\/27\\\/newsletter-2-26-2024\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Dodds\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a9b55d000ca877f53f3b7b733fb26b9b\"},\"headline\":\"Newsletter &#8211; 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