{"id":594982,"date":"2024-03-26T15:25:25","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T15:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=594982"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:50","slug":"newsletter-3-25-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/26\/newsletter-3-25-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter &#8211; 3\/25\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Week of March 18, 2024 in Review<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Fed held rates steady, as anticipated, with their forecasts showing that three cuts are still expected this year. Plus, February saw positive momentum in home sales and construction. Here are the top stories:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fed Still Signals Three Rate Cuts in 2024<\/li>\n<li>Existing Home Sales Hit Highest Level in a Year<\/li>\n<li>Home Builders Feeling Positive<\/li>\n<li>Favorable February for Housing Starts<\/li>\n<li>Slight Decline in Initial Jobless Claims<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Fed Still Signals Three Rate Cuts in 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After eleven rate hikes since March of 2022, the Fed once again left their benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision was unanimous and marks the fifth straight meeting they held rates steady.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for overnight borrowing for banks and it is not the same as mortgage rates. The Fed has been aggressively hiking the Fed Funds Rate throughout this cycle to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant over the last few years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Despite some recent inflation readings that were hotter than expected, the Fed noted that three rate cuts are still expected this year. The Fed\u2019s &#8220;dot plot&#8221; of member forecasts showed that 15 out of 19 members still expect cuts of between 50 and 100 basis points over the course of 2024.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Existing Home Sales Hit Highest Level in a Year<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-594983\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024.png\" alt=\"existing sales feb 2024\" width=\"643\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024.png 643w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024-400x267.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/existing-sales-feb-2024-600x400.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Existing Home Sales jumped 9.5% from January to February to a 4.38-million-unit annualized pace, reaching their highest level in a year per the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). This report measures closings on existing homes in February and likely reflects people shopping for homes in December and January, when rates were improved from last fall\u2019s peak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Inventory increased 5.9% from January, with NAR\u2019s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noting that &#8220;additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand.&#8221;<br \/>\nRising inventory is certainly a step in the right direction to help improve the persistent tight housing supply we\u2019ve seen across the country. However, the 1.07 million homes available for sale at the end of February is still below healthy levels at just a 2.9 months\u2019 supply of homes at the current sales pace. Yun added that \u201cmore supply is clearly needed to help stabilize home prices and get more Americans moving to their next residences.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Home Builders Feeling Positive<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-594984\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024.png\" alt=\"home builder sentiment march 2024\" width=\"648\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024.png 648w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024-400x266.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-builder-sentiment-mar-2024-600x399.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Confidence among home builders broke above the key breakeven threshold of 50 and into positive territory for the first time since last July, per the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Their Housing Market Index climbed three points to 51 in March, which was also the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Any score over 50 on this index, which runs from 0 to 100, signals that more builders view conditions as good than poor.<\/p>\n<p>All three index components posted gains this month, with current and future sales expectations both well into expansion territory at 56 and 62, respectively. The gauge judging buyer traffic also moved higher.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> The persistent lack of previously owned homes for sale, strong buyer demand, and rates below last fall\u2019s peak have pushed builder confidence higher. NAHB Chair Carl Harris explained, \u201cBuyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Favorable February for Housing Starts<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-594985\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024.png\" alt=\"new home construction feb 2024\" width=\"649\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024.png 649w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024-400x266.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024-600x399.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 649px) 100vw, 649px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Housing Starts saw a big rebound in February, with both single-family and multi-family construction improving from January\u2019s slump. When compared to a year ago, however, single-family starts were up 35.2% while multi-family starts were down 35.9%. This suggests that we\u2019re seeing a shift from multi-family to single-family construction, which is welcome news as this is where supply is needed around much of the country.<\/p>\n<p>Single-family Building Permits also reached their highest level in a year, up 29.5% when compared to February 2023, signaling that the numbers for future supply are also favorable.<br \/>\nWe also saw a big boost in completions, and if the current pace continues, this will add a further boost to much needed supply.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB\u2019s Assistant VP for Forecasting and Analysis, confirmed that \u201csingle-family housing is poised for a good year in 2024 with starts and permits on an upward trend.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Chair Carl Harris added, \u201cThe solid level of single-family production in February tracks closely with rising builder sentiment, and with mortgage rates expected to moderate further this year, this will provide an added boost for single-family building.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Slight Decline in Initial Jobless Claims<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Initial Jobless Claims were relatively flat in the latest week, with 210,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. This was a decline of 2,000 from the previous week. Continuing Claims rose by 4,000, with 1.807 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Initial Jobless Claims remain tame and continue to suggest a surprisingly low level of layoffs despite the high-profile downsizing announcements we\u2019ve seen. Yet, Continuing Claims are trending higher compared to a year ago, showing that it\u2019s become harder for some people to find new employment once they are let go.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Family Hack of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Baseball is back! These ballpark inspired Honey Roasted Peanuts courtesy of The Spruce Eats are sure to be a homerun every time.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Preheat oven to 325 degrees Fahrenheit.<\/li>\n<li>Line a baking sheet with aluminum foil and spray with cooking spray.<\/li>\n<li>Add 2 tablespoons unsalted butter, 1\/3 cup honey, 1 teaspoon vanilla, 1\/4 teaspoon cinnamon, and 1 teaspoon kosher salt to a microwave safe bowl and microwave until the butter is melted, about 45 seconds.<\/li>\n<li>Stir until liquid is smooth.<\/li>\n<li>Add 1 pound raw (or roasted unsalted) peanuts to butter mixture and stir until they\u2019re evenly coated.<\/li>\n<li>Pour peanuts onto prepared baking sheet and spread them into an even layer.<\/li>\n<li>Bake for 20 minutes, stirring every 5 minutes to get an even roasting.<\/li>\n<li>Remove peanuts from oven once they\u2019re golden brown; stir to distribute any honey that has dripped onto the baking sheet.<\/li>\n<li>Sprinkle 1\/4 cup granulated sugar and 1 teaspoon salt on top and stir.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy warm or cold.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What to Look for This Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll get an update on signed contracts for February when New and Pending Home Sales data is released on Monday and Thursday, respectively. Plus, appreciation data for January from Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency will be reported on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Look for the final reading for fourth quarter 2023 GDP and the latest Jobless Claims on Thursday. Friday brings what will likely be the biggest news of the week \u2013 the Fed\u2019s favored inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Technical Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mortgage Bonds broke above their 50-day Moving Average last Friday, which was a positive technical development. The 10-year has broken beneath its 25-day and 100-day Moving Averages, ending last week battling the formidable 200-day Moving Average, which could be difficult to break through.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">Contact me if you have any questions!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of March 18, 2024 in Review The Fed held rates steady, as anticipated, with their forecasts showing that three cuts are still expected this year. Plus, February saw positive momentum in home sales and construction. Here are the top stories: Fed Still Signals Three Rate Cuts in 2024 Existing Home Sales Hit Highest Level [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":594985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-594982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter - 3\/25\/2024 - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed held rates steady, as anticipated, with their forecasts showing that three cuts are still expected this year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/26\/newsletter-3-25-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter - 3\/25\/2024 - Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed held rates steady, as anticipated, with their forecasts showing that three cuts are still expected this year.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/26\/newsletter-3-25-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-26T15:25:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T19:39:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/new-home-construction-feb-2024.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"649\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"432\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/03\\\/26\\\/newsletter-3-25-2024\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/03\\\/26\\\/newsletter-3-25-2024\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Dodds\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a9b55d000ca877f53f3b7b733fb26b9b\"},\"headline\":\"Newsletter &#8211; 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