{"id":595058,"date":"2024-07-01T21:31:13","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T21:31:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595058"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:40","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:40","slug":"newsletter-7-1-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/07\/01\/newsletter-7-1-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter &#8211; 7\/1\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Week of June 24, 2024 in Review<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Both inflation and home sales moved lower. Meanwhile, home prices hit another all-time high. Read on for <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">these stories and more:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Inflation Cools in May<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">New Home Sales Slip <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Pending Home Sales Continue Lower <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Home Price Gains Remain Strong <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">First Quarter Only Slightly Higher Than Initially Reported <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Initial Jobless Claims Decline but Still Remain Elevated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Inflation Cools in May<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595059\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024.png\" alt=\"personal consumption expenditures may 2024\" width=\"1008\" height=\"663\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024.png 1008w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-200x132.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-400x263.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-600x395.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/personal-consumption-expenditures-may-2024-800x526.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">While May\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that headline inflation was unchanged from <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">April, the year-over-year reading declined from 2.7% to 2.6%. Core PCE, the Fed\u2019s preferred method which<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by less than 0.1% monthly. The year-over-year reading <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">declined from 2.8% to 2.6%, an encouraging drop for the Fed\u2019s mandate of stable prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The Fed has been working hard to tame inflation, hiking its benchmark Fed Funds<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Rate (which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks) eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023.<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">These hikes were designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive and lowering the <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">demand for goods, so pricing pressure and inflation would shrink.<\/span><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The Fed has held rates steady since last September because inflation had been making good progress lower <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">late last year before stalling in the first quarter of this year. While Fed members have emphasized that they<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">do not expect to cut rates until they\u2019re confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards their 2% target <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">(as measured by annual Core PCE), May\u2019s tamer inflation readings are a welcome sign.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">New Home Sales Slip<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595060\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024.png\" alt=\"new home sales may 2024\" width=\"934\" height=\"667\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024.png 934w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-300x214.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-768x548.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-200x143.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-400x286.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-600x428.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/new-home-sales-may-2024-800x571.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 934px) 100vw, 934px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on new homes, fell 11.3% from April to May, significantly <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">missing forecasts that were expecting a rise. Signed contracts were also 16.5% lower than they were in May<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">of last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Despite the pullback in sales, demand for new construction remains strong due to <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">the persistent shortage of existing homes for sale. On that note, more \u201cavailable\u201d supply is needed to meet<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">buyer demand. While there were 481,000 new homes available for sale at the end of May, slightly higher <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">than the 474,000 seen in the previous report, only 99,000 were completed, with the rest either under<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">construction or not even started yet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Also, the median home price fell only 0.1% from April but this was not due to falling home prices, which <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">continue to rise nationwide per Case-Shiller and other appreciation indexes as noted below. The median<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">home price represents the mid-price of sales, meaning it\u2019s influenced by the mix of sales in any given month. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Builders are constructing smaller, more affordable homes to meet buyer demand, and that pushed the <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">median home price slightly lower comparatively.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Pending Home Sales Continue Lower<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595061\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024.png\" alt=\"pending home sales may 2024\" width=\"1006\" height=\"669\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024.png 1006w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-400x266.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-600x399.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/pending-home-sales-may-2024-800x532.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Pending Home Sales fell 2.1% from April to May per the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), coming in <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">well below estimates of a 2.5% rise, following a 7.5% decline seen from March to April. Sales were also 6.6%<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">lower than they were a year earlier. This report measures signed contracts on existing homes, making it an <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">important forward-looking indicator for closings on these homes as measured in the Existing Home Sales<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">report.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The Pending Home Sales index took another turn lower in April after a significant <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">drop in March, with NAR\u2019s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, explaining, \u201cthe first half of the year did not meet<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">expectations regarding home sales but exceeded expectations related to home prices. In the second half of <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">2024, look for moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home sales and stabilizing home prices.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Home Price Gains Remain Strong<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the \u201cgold standard\u201d for appreciation, showed home <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">prices nationwide rose 0.3% from March to April after seasonal adjustment. Home values in April were also<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">6.3% higher than a year earlier, following a 6.5% gain in March. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The Federal Housing Finance Agency\u2019s (FHFA) House Price Index also reported a 0.2% jump in home prices <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">from March to April, with prices 6.3% higher than the previous year. Note that FHFA does not include cash <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">buyers or jumbo loans, and these factors account for some of the differences in the two reports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595062\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024.png\" alt=\"case shiller home price index april 2024\" width=\"1004\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024.png 1004w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-768x501.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-200x130.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-400x261.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-600x391.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024-800x522.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">\u201cFor the second consecutive month, we\u2019ve seen our National Index jump at least <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">1% over its previous all-time high,\u201d confirmed S&amp;P DJI\u2019s Head of Commodities, Brian D. Luke.<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">These indexes show that homeownership remains a fantastic opportunity for families to create wealth <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">through appreciation gains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">First Quarter Only Slightly Higher Than Initially Reported<br \/>\n<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The U.S. economy grew more slowly than previously thought during the first quarter, per the Bureau of <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Economic Analysis, as their final reading of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for that period showed 1.4% <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">growth. While this was above the 1.3% pace in the second estimate, it is ultimately lower than the 1.6% pace <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">in the first estimate. This is well below the 3.4% growth seen in the fourth quarter of last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">GDP functions as a scorecard for the country\u2019s economic health, so signs of a <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">slowdown are a concern. The deceleration in GDP in the first quarter of 2024 can be attributed to declines in<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Initial Jobless Claims Decline but Still Remain Elevated<\/span><\/strong><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Initial Jobless Claims fell by 6,000 in the latest week, with 233,000 people filing new unemployment claims. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">There were also 1.839 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim, as Continuing Claims<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">increased by 18,000.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/span><\/strong> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Initial Jobless Claims followed three straight weeks of increases with a modest <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">decline of 6,000. Continuing Claims are also still trending near some of the hottest levels we\u2019ve seen in<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">recent years, suggesting that the pace of hiring has slowed. The Fed will be closely watching for any rising <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">trends in unemployment claims as they weigh monetary policy and the timing for rate cuts, given their dual <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">mandate and price stability and maximum employment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Family Hack of the Week<\/span><\/strong><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Celebrate July 4 with these refreshing Red, White and Blue Ice Pops from the Food Network. Yields 6. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Place six 3-to-4-ounce ice pop molds in the freezer for 30 minutes. Combine 2 cups strawberries (hulled and<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">roughly chopped) and 1 tablespoon each of coconut cream, and honey in a blender and puree until smooth. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Pour into a liquid measuring cup and set aside. Rinse the blender.<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Combine 1\/2 cup unsweetened coconut milk and 1 tablespoon each of coconut cream and lime juice in the <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">blender and puree until smooth. Evenly divide the strawberry puree between the frozen pop molds. Layer the<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">coconut milk mixture over the strawberry puree. Freeze for 30 minutes. Rinse the blender. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Combine 2 cups blueberries and 1 tablespoon each of coconut cream, honey and lime juice in the blender<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">and puree until smooth. Remove frozen pop molds from freezer and add the blueberry puree. Insert the pop <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">mold stick and freeze until set, at least 4 hours or overnight. Let sit at room temperature for 5 minutes<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">before unmolding and serving.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">What to Look for This Week<\/span><\/strong><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">We\u2019ll see more appreciation data from CoreLogic on Tuesday, and then labor sector news will dominate the <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">headlines. Look for updates on job openings Tuesday, private payrolls and unemployment claims<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Wednesday, and non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate Friday. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The markets will close early on Wednesday and all-day Thursday in celebration of the July 4 holiday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Technical Picture<\/span><\/strong><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">Mortgage Bonds have finally broken out of the range they had been trading in since June 11, but the wrong <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">way and to the downside. Bonds broke beneath the 100.427 Fibonacci level, 25-day Moving Average, and<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">are testing the 100-day Moving Average currently. There is additional support not far from current levels at <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">the 50-day Moving Average should the 100-day not hold.<\/span><br role=\"presentation\" \/><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">The 10-year has moved higher to 4.36%, but is at a very strong triple ceiling, formed by the 200-day, 100-<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">day, and 25-day Moving Averages. Although Yields moved higher today, the damage appears to have<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" role=\"presentation\">stopped and the technical levels are holding.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you have any questions please <a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">contact me today<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of June 24, 2024 in Review Both inflation and home sales moved lower. Meanwhile, home prices hit another all-time high. Read on for these stories and more: Inflation Cools in May New Home Sales Slip Pending Home Sales Continue Lower Home Price Gains Remain Strong First Quarter Only Slightly Higher Than Initially Reported Initial [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter - 7\/1\/2024 - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Both inflation and home sales moved lower. Meanwhile, home prices hit another all-time high. Read on for these stories and more:\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/07\/01\/newsletter-7-1-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter - 7\/1\/2024 - Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Both inflation and home sales moved lower. Meanwhile, home prices hit another all-time high. 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