{"id":595065,"date":"2024-07-09T22:03:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T22:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595065"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:40","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:40","slug":"newsletter-7-8-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/07\/09\/newsletter-7-8-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter &#8211; 7\/8\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Week of July 1, 2024 in Review<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are more signs that the labor sector is softening, as job growth eased in June and the uptick in the Unemployment Rate triggered an important recession indicator. Meanwhile, home prices continue to rise nationwide. Here are last week\u2019s headlines:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sahm-thing Happening in the Labor Sector<\/li>\n<li>Private Payrolls, Annual Wage Gains Slow<\/li>\n<li>Job Openings Remain Near 3-Year Lows<\/li>\n<li>Jobless Claims Trending Higher<\/li>\n<li>Strong Spring for Home Prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Sahm-thing Happening in the Labor Sector<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 206,000 jobs created in June, which was just above estimates of 200,000 new jobs. However, there were big negative revisions to April and May, which shaved 111,000 jobs from those months combined. The unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.1%.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595066\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024.png\" alt=\"bls jobs report june 2024\" width=\"1005\" height=\"659\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024.png 1005w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-768x504.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-200x131.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-400x262.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-600x393.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bls-jobs-report-june-2024-800x525.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1005px) 100vw, 1005px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> While the headline job growth figure beat estimates, future revisions lower are a very real possibility, given that we continue to see this pattern from the BLS. Plus, it\u2019s important to look at both surveys within the Jobs Report, which told two different stories regarding job growth. The headline job number (+206,000) comes from the report\u2019s Business Survey, which is based predominantly on modeling and estimations. However, the Household Survey\u2019s job creation component (which is considered more real-time because it\u2019s derived by calling households) showed only 116,000 job gains, much lower than the headline number. Plus, the data showed we continue to lose full-time jobs while gaining part-time workers, which is a theme we\u2019ve seen for quite some time.<\/p>\n<p>The Unemployment Rate also rose from 4% to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021. This increase triggered the Sahm Rule, which portends a recession with a high degree of certainty. Named after former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, this recession indicator flashes when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Private Payrolls, Annual Wage Gains Slow<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ADP\u2019s Employment Report showed that private payrolls rose less than expected in June, as employers added 150,000 new jobs versus the 160,000 that had been forecasted. This marks the third straight month that job creation has slowed among private employers. Nearly all the gains came from service-providing sectors (+136,000), with goods producers only adding 14,000 jobs due to a slowdown in manufacturing and mining.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595067\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024.png\" alt=\"adp employment report june 2024\" width=\"970\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024.png 970w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-768x500.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-200x130.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-400x261.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-600x391.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024-800x521.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Small businesses also continue to feel the pinch, as those with fewer than 50 employees only added 5,000 jobs. This is compared to 146,000 new jobs added among medium and large companies combined. Annual pay gains decelerated for job changers, with ADP reporting an average increase of 7.7% in June versus 7.8% in May and 9.3% in April. Job stayers saw an average increase of 4.9%, down from 5% in the previous three months. The Fed is watching this closely, as it can help alleviate wage-pressured inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> \u201cJob growth has been solid, but not broad-based,\u201d said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. \u201cHad it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Job Openings Remain Near 3-Year Low<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings rose slightly to 8.14 million in May, though April\u2019s openings were revised lower from 8.059 million to 7.919 million. The quit rate held steady at 2.2% while the hiring rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Job openings in April and May were at the lowest levels since February 2021 and are now well below the high of 12 million hit in 2022. Plus, the quit rate has also fallen over the last year, suggesting there is less poaching from other companies and fewer people feel confident about finding new employment. Overall, this data is another sign that weakness is building in the labor sector.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jobless Claims Trending Higher<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Initial Jobless Claims rose by 4,000 in the latest week, with 238,000 people filing new unemployment claims. Continuing Claims rose by 26,000, as 1.858 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims trended higher in June, with Initial Claims above 230,000 and Continuing Claims topping 1.8 million in each of the last four weeks. The Fed is closely watching for any rising trends in unemployment claims as they weigh monetary policy and the timing for rate cuts, given their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Strong Spring for Home Prices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>CoreLogic\u2019s Home Price Index showed that home prices nationwide rose 0.6% in May after rising 1.1% in April and 1.2% in March, showing it\u2019s been a strong season for home values nationwide. Prices are also 4.9% higher when compared to May of last year. CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will rise 0.7% in June and 3% in the year going forward, though their forecasts tend to be conservative. ICE (formally known as Black Knight) also reported that national home values rose 0.3% in May after seasonal adjustment, with their index showing that prices are 4.6% higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> The latest rise in home prices reported by CoreLogic and ICE echoes the strong growth seen by other major indices like Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These reports continue to demonstrate why homeownership remains a good opportunity for building wealth through real estate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Family Hack of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>These Sugar Cookies from Allrecipes are easy to make and perfect for marking National Sugar Cookie Day on July 9. Yields 4 dozen. Preheat oven to 375 degrees Fahrenheit. In a small bowl, stir together 2 3\/4 cups all-purpose flour, 1 teaspoon baking soda, and 1\/2 teaspoon baking powder. In a large bowl, beat 1 1\/2 cups sugar and 1 cup softened butter with an electric mixer until smooth. Beat in 1 egg and 1 teaspoon vanilla. Gradually blend in flour mixture. Roll dough into walnut-sized balls and place 2 inches apart on ungreased baking sheets. Bake until edges are golden, around 8 to 10 minutes. Cool on the baking sheets briefly before removing to a wire rack to cool completely.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What to Look for This Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All eyes will be on June\u2019s inflation data when the Consumer Price Index is released on Thursday. The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, follows on Friday. Weekly Jobless Claims will also be important to monitor, given the recent increases we\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Technical Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mortgage Bonds broke above their 25-day Moving Average on Friday, ending last week battling the next ceiling of resistance at the 100.628 Fibonacci level. They 10-year moved lower and has a little more room for improvement before reaching the floor at the 4.249% Fibonacci level.<\/p>\n<p>If you have any questions please <a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">contact me today!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of July 1, 2024 in Review There are more signs that the labor sector is softening, as job growth eased in June and the uptick in the Unemployment Rate triggered an important recession indicator. Meanwhile, home prices continue to rise nationwide. Here are last week\u2019s headlines: Sahm-thing Happening in the Labor Sector Private Payrolls, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter - 7\/8\/2024 - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are more signs that the labor sector is softening, as job growth eased in June and the uptick in the Unemployment Rate triggered an...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/07\/09\/newsletter-7-8-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter - 7\/8\/2024 - Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There are more signs that the labor sector is softening, as job growth eased in June and the uptick in the Unemployment Rate triggered an...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/07\/09\/newsletter-7-8-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-09T22:03:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T19:39:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/adp-employment-report-june-2024.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"970\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"632\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/07\\\/09\\\/newsletter-7-8-2024\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/07\\\/09\\\/newsletter-7-8-2024\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Dodds\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a9b55d000ca877f53f3b7b733fb26b9b\"},\"headline\":\"Newsletter &#8211; 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