{"id":595112,"date":"2024-09-09T15:38:25","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T15:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595112"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:38","slug":"newsletter-9-3-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/09\/09\/newsletter-9-3-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsletter &#8211; 9\/3\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Week of August 26, 2024 in Review<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The latest inflation readings keep the Fed on track for a rate cut in September, while home prices continue to appreciate nationwide. Here are the top stories:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer Inflation Continues to Moderate<\/li>\n<li>Home Prices Hit Another New High<\/li>\n<li>Pending Home Sales Soft \u2026 For Now<\/li>\n<li>Second Quarter GDP Revised Higher<\/li>\n<li>Jobless Claims Continue to Show Labor Sector Weakness<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Consumer Inflation Continues to Moderate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595113\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024.png\" alt=\"personal expenditures july 2024\" width=\"1617\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024.png 1617w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-1024x648.png 1024w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-768x486.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-1536x973.png 1536w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-320x202.png 320w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-200x127.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-400x253.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-600x380.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-800x507.png 800w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/personal-expenditures-july-2024-1200x760.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1617px) 100vw, 1617px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>July\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that headline inflation rose 0.2% from June, while the year-over-year reading remained at 2.5%. Core PCE, the Fed\u2019s preferred method which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.2% monthly. The year-over-year reading held steady at 2.6%, remaining at the lowest level in three years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Inflation has been moderating and is heading toward the Fed\u2019s 2% target as measured by Core PCE. The cooling consumer inflation we\u2019ve seen in recent months combined with signs that the job market is slowing have led to growing calls for the Fed to begin cutting their benchmark Fed<br \/>\nFunds Rate, which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently confirmed that \u201cthe time has come for policy to adjust.\u201d The latest PCE readings keep the Fed on track to cut rates at their next meeting on September 18.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Home Prices Hit Another New High<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-595114\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024.png\" alt=\"home price index june 2024\" width=\"1617\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024.png 1617w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-1024x648.png 1024w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-768x486.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-1536x973.png 1536w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-320x202.png 320w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-200x127.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-400x253.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-600x380.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-800x507.png 800w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/home-price-index-july-2024-1200x760.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1617px) 100vw, 1617px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the \u201cgold standard\u201d for appreciation, showed home prices nationwide rose 0.2% from May to June after seasonal adjustment, breaking the previous month\u2019s all-time high. Home values in June were also 5.4% higher than a year earlier, following a 5.9% gain in May.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Housing Finance Agency\u2019s (FHFA) House Price Index did report that home prices fell 0.1% from May to June, though they were 5.1% higher when compared to the same time last year. Note that FHFA\u2019s data does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans, only loans financed with conforming mortgages. These<br \/>\nfactors account for some of the differences in the two reports.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> The reports from Case-Shiller, FHFA and other major home price indexes like CoreLogic and ICE show that homeownership continues to provide a significant wealth creation opportunity for people around the country.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pending Home Sales Soft \u2026 For Now<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-595115 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168.png\" alt=\"pending home sales july 2024\" width=\"1607\" height=\"1022\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168.png 1607w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-1024x651.png 1024w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-768x488.png 768w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-1536x977.png 1536w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-200x127.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-400x254.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-600x382.png 600w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-800x509.png 800w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168-1200x763.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1607px) 100vw, 1607px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Pending Home Sales plunged 5.5% from June to July, per the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), coming in well below estimates of a flat reading. Sales were also 8.5% lower than they were a year earlier. This report measures signed contracts on existing homes, making it an important forward-looking indicator for closings on these homes as measured in the Existing Home Sales report.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> While signed contracts on existing homes were soft last month, that\u2019s not the whole story. It takes time for the impact of lower rates to translate into buyers shopping, finding a home, negotiating, and eventually signing a contract. NAR\u2019s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, confirmed that \u201ccurrent lower, falling mortgage rates will no doubt bring buyers into market,\u201d which means the volume of signed contracts will likely rise in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second Quarter GDP Revised Higher<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. economy grew by 3% in the second quarter per the latest Gross Domestic Product report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This second reading of the data was above the initial 2.8% estimate and more than double the 1.4% growth seen in the first quarter of this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Economic activity was better than expected last quarter due in part to increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment and business investment. Note that this data could be revised one more time when the final reading is released on September 26.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jobless Claims Continue to Show Labor Sector Weakness<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly in the latest week, with 231,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continuing Claims rose by 13,000, as 1.868 million people are still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim, meaning this metric remains near the highs from November 2021.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Both Initial and Continuing Claims have trended higher this summer when compared to the beginning of the year, with Continuing Claims topping 1.8 million each week since the start of June. This shows that layoffs have risen while new job opportunities have also become scarcer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Family Hack of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>September is National Honey Month, making now the perfect time to enjoy these Honey Cookies courtesy of Allrecipes. Yields 4 dozen cookies.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit.<\/li>\n<li>Melt together 1 cup sugar, 1 cup butter, and 1 cup honey in a saucepan over low heat.<\/li>\n<li>Let cool. In a small bowl, mix 2 large eggs, 1 teaspoon vanilla, 1 teaspoon baking soda and 1 teaspoon ground ginger.<\/li>\n<li>Gradually add egg mixture to cooled honey mixture.<\/li>\n<li>Slowly add 4 cups all-purpose flour and stir until well blended. Drop teaspoonfuls onto cookie sheets about 2 inches apart. Bake until golden, about 12 to 15 minutes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>What to Look for This Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Crucial labor sector data will be reported, with updates on job openings Wednesday, private payrolls and unemployment claims Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate Friday. We\u2019ll also see more housing appreciation data from both CoreLogic and ICE.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Technical Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mortgage Bonds ended last week just beneath support at 100.79, which will now act as a ceiling of resistance with the 25-day Moving Average now a floor of support. The 10-year ended the week in the upper bound of a wide range between support at 3.80% and overhead resistance at the 25-day Moving Average<br \/>\nand 3.92% Fibonacci ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>If you have any questions, <a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">please contact me today!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of August 26, 2024 in Review The latest inflation readings keep the Fed on track for a rate cut in September, while home prices continue to appreciate nationwide. Here are the top stories: Consumer Inflation Continues to Moderate Home Prices Hit Another New High Pending Home Sales Soft \u2026 For Now Second Quarter GDP [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595115,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newsletter - 9\/3\/2024 - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest inflation readings keep the Fed on track for a rate cut in September, while home prices continue to appreciate nationwide.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/09\/09\/newsletter-9-3-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsletter - 9\/3\/2024 - Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The latest inflation readings keep the Fed on track for a rate cut in September, while home prices continue to appreciate nationwide.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2024\/09\/09\/newsletter-9-3-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-09-09T15:38:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T19:39:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/pending-home-sales-july-2024-e1725896278168.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1607\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1022\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/09\\\/09\\\/newsletter-9-3-2024\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2024\\\/09\\\/09\\\/newsletter-9-3-2024\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Dodds\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a9b55d000ca877f53f3b7b733fb26b9b\"},\"headline\":\"Newsletter &#8211; 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