Technical Picture<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nFed\u2019s Favored Inflation Measure Meets Estimates<\/h2>\n
![\"Personal](\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Personal-consumption-Expenditures.png\")
<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), met projections for January. Headline PCE rose 0.3% from December, with the year-over-year rate falling from 2.6% to 2.5%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy price fluctuations, also increased 0.3% monthly, while the annual rate fell from an upwardly revised 2.9% to 2.6%, reaching one of the lowest levels in four years.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> A key driver in progress toward the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target is shelter costs, which comprise 18% of Core PCE. While shelter costs in PCE have been elevated when compared to more real-time rental data from places like Apartment List and CoreLogic, they have started to align more favorably in the government’s report. As PCE better reflects softer real-time rental trends, this should contribute to a decrease in annual inflation readings.<\/p>\nSluggish New Home Sales to Start the Year<\/h2>\n
![\"New](\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Sales-3.6.25.png\")
<\/p>\n
New home sales fell short of estimates in January, as signed contracts dropped 10.5% from December. This decline was partly
\nattributed to high interest rates and adverse winter weather, particularly in the South. However, the impact was mitigated by an
\nupward revision to December’s sales figures. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased by 1.1%.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong>\u00a0The limited inventory of existing homes, coupled with strong buyer demand, has shifted attention to the
\nnew construction market. But additional inventory is necessary to meet this buyer interest. As of January’s end, there were
\n495,000 new homes available for sale, yet only 115,000 had been completed, with the rest either under construction or not yet
\nstarted.<\/p>\nPending Home Sales Plummet to Record Low<\/h2>\n
![\"Pending](\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Pending-Home-Sales-3.6.25.png\")
<\/p>\n
Pending Home Sales fell for the second straight month, declining 4.6% from December to January, as reported by the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae (NAR). This metric reflects signed contracts on existing homes, which typically precede closings by one to two months, and serves as a key predictor of housing market performance.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, commented, \u201cIt is unclear if the coldest January in 25 years contributed to fewer buyers in the market, and if so, expect greater sales activity in upcoming months.\u201d He further noted that while high home prices and mortgage rates have impacted affordability, even a modest decrease in rates could \u201cignite buyer interest, given rising incomes, increased jobs and more inventory choices.\u201d<\/p>\n\u201cUpward Trend\u201d in National Home Prices<\/h2>\n
![\"Case-Shiller](\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Case-Shiller-Home-Price-Index-3.6.25.png\")
<\/p>\n
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, considered the industry standard for measuring home value appreciation, reported a 0.5% increase in home prices nationwide from November to December after seasonal adjustments.<\/p>\n
On a year-over-year basis, home values in December rose 3.9%, building upon November’s 3.7% gain. The 10-city composite index posted a more robust 5.1% year-over-year increase, while the 20-city index saw a 4.5% rise, indicating stronger growth trends in major urban markets compared to the national average.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the Federal Housing Finance Agency\u2019s (FHFA) House Price Index showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4% from November to December, with prices 4.7% higher than last year. Unlike the Case-Shiller Index, the FHFA\u2019s measurement excludes cash buyers and jumbo loans, focusing solely on conventional mortgage financing.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities at S&P DJI, remarked that the Case-Shiller Index “continues to highlight the upward trend of home prices nationally.” For example, buying a home for $600,000 that appreciates by 4% over a year could result in a $24,000 gain, underscoring the substantial wealth-building potential of homeownership.<\/p>\nAlso, of Note<\/h2>\n
The second estimate for fourth quarter 2024 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy grew by 2.3%, matching the initial report. This followed growth of 1.6% in the first quarter, 3% in the second, and 3.1% in the third quarter last year.<\/p>\n
The Q4 increase was largely driven by rising government and consumer spending, tempered by declining investment. Note this data may be revised in the final estimate at the end of March.<\/p>\n
Turning to unemployment data, Initial Jobless Claims (+22K to 242K) reached their highest level since early December. Continuing Claims (-5K to 1.862M) remain elevated above 1.8 million for the thirty-eighth straight week, suggesting longer unemployment periods for job seekers.<\/p>\n
Family Hack of the Week<\/h2>\n
Your family and friends will enjoy this delicious Honey Vanilla Pound Cake, courtesy of the Food Network. It’s perfect for an afternoon snack, dessert, or to celebrate National Pound Cake Day on March 4.<\/p>\n
\n- Preheat the oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit.<\/li>\n
- Prepare an 8 1\/2 x 4 1\/2 x 2 1\/2-inch loaf pan by greasing the bottom, lining it with parchment paper, and then greasing and flouring the pan.<\/li>\n
- In a stand mixer, cream 1\/2-pound unsalted butter (at room temperature) and 1 1\/4 cups sugar on medium for 3 to 4 minutes until
\nlight.<\/li>\n - In a separate glass measuring cup, add 4 extra-large eggs, 2 tablespoons of honey, 2 teaspoons of vanilla, and 1 teaspoon
\nof grated lemon zest without mixing.<\/li>\n - Reduce the mixer speed to medium-low and gradually add the egg mixture one egg at am time, ensuring each is fully incorporated before adding the next.<\/li>\n
- In another bowl, sift together 2 cups of cake flour, 1 teaspoon kosher salt and 1\/2 teaspoon baking powder.<\/li>\n
- With the mixer on low speed, gradually add the flour mixture to the batter until just combined.<\/li>\n
- Transfer the batter into the prepared pan, smooth the top, and bake for 50 to 60 minutes, or until a toothpick inserted into the center comes out clean.<\/li>\n
- Allow it to cool for 15 minutes before transferring to a wire rack to cool completely.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
What to Look for This Week<\/h2>\n
This week’s economic calendar features several key labor market reports, including private payrolls on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday.<\/p>\n
Technical Picture<\/h2>\n
Mortgage Bonds closed last week challenging overhead resistance at 101.55, which represents levels not seen since early December. If Bonds can confirm this move higher, there may be further upside potential before encountering the next ceiling at 101.73. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below its 200-day moving average, suggesting room for additional yield improvement before reaching the next floor at the 4.126% Fibonacci level.<\/p>\n
If you had any question, please feel free to contact me!\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Week of February 24, 2025 in Review The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge aligned with projections in January. Meanwhile, home sales stagnated to begin the year, even as prices maintained an upward trajectory across much of the country. Read on for additional insights. Fed\u2019s Favored Inflation Measure Meets Estimates Sluggish New Home Sales to Start […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595267,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"\n
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Meanwhile, home sales stagnated to begin the year, even as prices maintained an upward trajectory across much of the country. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), met projections for January. Headline PCE rose 0.3% from December, with the year-over-year rate falling from 2.6% to 2.5%. 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