{"id":595286,"date":"2025-03-27T21:14:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T21:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595286"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:07","slug":"fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/03\/27\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Pause Continues, Housing Data Surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Week of March 17, 2025 in Review <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as anticipated, while unveiling its latest economic projections. Meanwhile, existing home sales and housing starts exceeded expectations, even as home builder confidence declined. Read on for these updates and more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed Maintains Current Rate, Signals Economic Outlook <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Existing Home Sales Exceed Expectations <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Home Builder Confidence Drops to 7-Month Low <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing Starts Rebound <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail Sales Disappoint <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Latest Unemployment Claims Reflect Ongoing Trends <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Family Hack of the Week <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What to Look for This Week <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Technical Picture<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fed Maintains Current Rate, Signals Economic Outlook <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Federal Reserve has opted to keep its benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, maintaining the hold established during the January meeting. This decision to pause further rate cuts was anticipated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed Funds Rate, a short-term rate used for interbank lending, influences various interest rates across the economy, although it does not directly impact mortgage or long-term rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line? <\/strong>The Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2025, acknowledging the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic landscape. They project a slowdown in GDP growth for this year at 1.7%, down from the previous estimate in December of 2.1%, while inflation is expected to exceed earlier forecasts at Core PCE of 2.8%, compared to 2.5%. Additionally, the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. Nonetheless, most Fed members continue to foresee two rate cuts later this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a further development, the Fed announced plans to slow its balance sheet runoff starting in April, which positively affected the Mortgage Bond market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Existing Home Sales Exceed Expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"765\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25.png 765w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25-200x131.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25-400x262.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25-600x394.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In February, existing home sales saw a notable uptick, rising by 4.2% from January&#8217;s sluggish start to the year. This increase surpassed expectations of a 3% decline. The February report likely reflects sales from buyers who were shopping in December and January when mortgage rates were higher, making the upside surprise even more impressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> \u201cThe momentum for home sales is flashing encouraging signs,&#8221; according to the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that more inventory has brought some buyers back to the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, despite February&#8217;s inventory climbing to 1.24 million units, the situation remains tight compared to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, only 848,000 of those listings were active; the remainder were under contract and not available for new buyers. This ongoing supply shortage, combined with pent-up buyer demand, bodes well for continued home price appreciation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Home Builder Confidence Drops to 7-Month Low<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"766\" height=\"503\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595295\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25.png 766w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25-200x131.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25-400x263.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/NAHB-home-Builder-Sentiment-3.27.25-600x394.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 766px) 100vw, 766px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Home builder confidence declined for the second consecutive month, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reporting a drop in their confidence index from 42 in February to 39 in March. This figure represents the lowest level since August and falls well below the neutral benchmark of 50, signaling contraction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All three components of the index \u2013 buyer traffic, current sales and future sales expectations \u2013 remain below 50. Notably, current sales conditions (down 3 points to 43) reached their lowest level since December 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> The key factors dampening builder sentiment were economic uncertainty, high costs, and tariff threats, though they expressed hope that a more favorable regulatory environment would improve the business climate, according to the NAHB. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Housing Starts Rebound<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"762\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25.png 762w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25-200x132.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25-400x264.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/New-Home-Construction-3.27.25-600x395.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In February, housing starts rose 11% from the previous month, rebounding from a disruption in construction activity during January due to harsh winter weather, particularly in the South and Northeast regions. These regions saw even larger increases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, building permits, an indicator of future construction, dipped slightly from the prior month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Overall, while February&#8217;s housing starts improved to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million, they remain below the average household formations of 1.8 million per year seen over the past five years. This gap highlights a significant mismatch between demand and supply, which should also help sustain home values moving forward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Retail Sales Disappoint <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retail Sales rose a modest 0.2% in February, well below the expected 0.6% increase. Additionally, January&#8217;s sales figures were revised downward to a 1.2% decline, the largest monthly drop in nearly four years. However, the &#8220;control group&#8221; \u2013 excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services \u2013 saw a better-than-expected 1% rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Retail sales are a key indicator of consumer spending, an essential component of economic activity. While the February increase was an improvement over January&#8217;s sizable decline, the data so far this year suggests consumers are growing more cautious amid economic uncertainty. Fed members will be closely monitoring future retail sales reports, as the strength of consumer spending will factor in upcoming monetary policy decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Latest Unemployment Claims Reflect Ongoing Trends <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initial jobless claims increased by 2,000, bringing the total to 223,000. Overall, this figure remains stable. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims climbed by 33,000, reaching 1.892 million \u2013 close to a three year high. These continuing claims have stayed above 1.8 million since last June, indicating a concerning trend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> The most recent unemployment data continues to tell a consistent story. Although new claims are still at historically low levels, the sustained rise in continuing claims points to longer durations of unemployment for many job seekers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Family Hack of the Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With March Madness in full swing, these Chicken Nachos from Allrecipes make for a slam dunk gameday snack. This recipe serves 6. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In a deep 12-inch skillet, heat 3 tablespoons of canola oil over medium heat. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Saut\u00e9 the white parts of 6 green onions along with 2 crushed garlic cloves until the onions are tender. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Add 1 shredded cooked chicken breast and season with kosher salt and pepper, tossing to coat evenly. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stir in 1 cup of salsa. On a large baking sheet, spread 6 ounces of tortilla chips. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Top the chips with the chicken mixture, then sprinkle with 8 ounces of shredded cheddar and Monterey Jack cheese and 1\/2 of a large diced tomato. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bake for approximately 10 minutes, or until the cheese has melted. Remove from the oven and garnish with sliced green onion tops before serving. <br><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What to Look for This Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The critical report this week will be published on Friday, focusing on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, housing data will be released throughout the week, including appreciation figures and New Home Sales on Tuesday, as well as Pending Home Sales on Thursday. Thursday will also feature the latest Jobless Claims and the final estimate of fourth quarter GDP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technical Picture <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mortgage Bonds finished last week trading in a wide range, closing between key support at 101.39 and overhead resistance at 101.71.\u00a0The 10-year Treasury yield closed above its 200-day moving average on Friday, forming a \u201cHammer\u201d candlestick pattern, which generally portends to moves higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you had any questions, please don&#8217;t hesitate to <a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">contact me! <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of March 17, 2025 in Review The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as anticipated, while unveiling its latest economic projections. Meanwhile, existing home sales and housing starts exceeded expectations, even as home builder confidence declined. Read on for these updates and more. Fed Maintains Current Rate, Signals Economic Outlook The Federal Reserve has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595294,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Pause Continues, Housing Data Surprises - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as anticipated, while unveiling its latest economic projections. 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Meanwhile, existing home sales and housing starts exceeded expectations, even as home builder confidence declined.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/03\/27\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-27T21:14:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T19:39:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"765\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"502\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Dodds\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Dodds\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a9b55d000ca877f53f3b7b733fb26b9b\"},\"headline\":\"Fed Pause Continues, Housing Data Surprises\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-27T21:14:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-08T19:39:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1119,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Newsletter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/\",\"name\":\"Fed Pause Continues, Housing Data Surprises - Drew Dodds\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/27\\\/fed-pause-continues-housing-data-surprises\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/Existing-Home-Sales-3.27.25.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-27T21:14:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-08T19:39:07+00:00\",\"description\":\"The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as anticipated, while unveiling its latest economic projections. 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