{"id":595313,"date":"2025-04-11T23:15:22","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T23:15:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595313"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:07","slug":"tariffs-announced-labor-data-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/04\/11\/tariffs-announced-labor-data-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariffs Announced, Labor Data Surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Week of March 31, 2025 in Review <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">March saw stronger-than-expected job growth, but the labor sector continues to deliver mixed messages. However, this news was overshadowed by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Read on for these updates and more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global Reciprocal Tariffs Announced <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>March Sees Stronger Job Growth, But With Caveats <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Private Payrolls Rebound <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Job Openings Fall in February <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Continuing Jobless Claims Reach 3-Year Peak <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Family Hack of the Week <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What to Look for This Week <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Technical Picture<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Global Reciprocal Tariffs Announced <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, President Trump announced a new 10% &#8220;baseline&#8221; tariff on imports, along with country-specific tariffs set at roughly half the rates those countries charge on US exports. These sweeping new tariffs have created significant market uncertainty, as it remains unclear how other nations will respond. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the short term, the announcement sparked a sharp selloff in stocks, with bonds (including mortgage-backed securities) benefiting from a flight to safety. Given the fluid nature of these ongoing market dynamics, I will continue to closely monitor developments in the days and weeks ahead. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>March Sees Stronger Job Growth, But With Caveats<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"765\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25.png 765w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25-200x131.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25-400x262.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/BLS-Job-Reports-4.11.25-600x394.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">March delivered a surprising upside in job growth, with 228,000 new positions added \u2013 significantly exceeding the expected 135,000 to 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, this headline figure may be subject to revision in the coming months, as January and February saw downward adjustments totaling 48,000 fewer jobs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, a closer look at the March data reveals some underlying weaknesses. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average weekly earnings only increased 0.3% from February and 3.2% year-over-year \u2013 down from 3.7% in the prior report. Hours worked also remained at 34.2 for a second straight month, just above the lowest level since 2010 outside of the COVID-19 period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the job gains were also concentrated in specific age groups, with 20-24 year olds and those 55 and over seeing the biggest increases, while those in the prime earning ages of 25-54 actually lost 107,000 jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line? <\/strong>While the headline job growth figure was stronger than expected, the March employment report comes with several important caveats that suggest underlying weakness in the labor market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Private Payrolls Rebound<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"765\" height=\"507\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25.png 765w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25-200x133.png 200w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25-400x265.png 400w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ADP-Employment-Rebound-4.11.25-600x398.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In March, the private sector exceeded expectations, adding 155,000 new jobs \u2013 well above the forecasted 105,000. Gains were seen across companies of all sizes, with small businesses adding a notable 52,000 positions after several months of weak or negative growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the bulk of hiring occurred in the service sector (+132,000 jobs), there were also positive signs on the goods side, as manufacturing delivered stronger-than-average job gains for the second consecutive month. Wage growth remained solid, though it dipped slightly for existing employees (from 4.7% to 4.6%). Those changing jobs saw a larger decline (from 6.8% to 6.5%), and the pay premium for job transitions matched a series low at 1.9%, suggesting less poaching and enticement to switch roles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> According to ADP&#8217;s chief economist Nela Richardson, &#8220;Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Job Openings Fall in February <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The number of open jobs declined modestly in February, down from 7.76 million in January to 7.57 million, falling short of estimates. The drop was particularly pronounced in sectors like trade, finance, and leisure and hospitality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The hiring rate (3.4%) and quit rate (2%) remained near decade lows, excluding the COVID-19 period. The low hiring rate poses challenges for the unemployed seeking new roles, while the soft quit rate indicates diminished confidence in the job market, aligning with ADP data showing lower pay premium incentives for switching jobs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Job openings continue a downward trend, well below the 2022 peak of 1.2 million. Remote work has also led to job listings being posted across multiple states, potentially inflating the JOLTS data and indicating even fewer openings than reported. Additionally, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has significantly decreased from over 2 in 2022 to 1.1, which is another signal of underlying labor market weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Continuing Jobless Claims Reach 3-Year Peak <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weekly initial jobless claims declined slightly to 219,000, staying low historically. However, the more concerning indicator is the persistent rise in continuing unemployment claims, which increased by 56,000 to reach 1.9 million \u2013 the highest level since November 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, recent data from Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas showed a 60% surge in job cut announcements in March, reaching 275,240 &#8211; the third highest monthly total on record. These cuts were concentrated in the federal government sector. Furthermore, hiring totals in the first quarter were the lowest for that period since 2012. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> While new unemployment filings have mostly stayed muted, the elevated continuing claims, along with surging job cut announcements and declining hiring, collectively point to ongoing challenges in the employment landscape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Family Hack of the Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">April is National Grilled Cheese Month, so why not try a delicious twist on this classic sandwich? This Tomato Bacon Grilled<br>Cheese from Allrecipes is a scrumptious option that yields 4 sandwiches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>First, cook 8 slices of bacon in a large skillet over medium heat until evenly browned. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drain the bacon and set it aside. Then, gather 8 slices of American or cheddar cheese and 8 slices of beefsteak tomato. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To assemble the sandwiches, heat a large skillet over medium heat. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spread butter on one side of 8 slices of bread. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Place 4 of the slices, butter-side down, in the skillet. Top each with a slice of cheese, 2 slices of tomato, 2 pieces of bacon, and another slice of cheese. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cover with the remaining 4 slices of bread, butter-side out. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fry the sandwiches until golden brown on both sides. These sandwiches are fantastic on their own or paired with a warm cup of tomato soup.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What to Look for This Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation data will highlight this week\u2019s calendar, with the release of March\u2019s Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the Producer<br>Price Index on Friday. Additionally, the minutes from the Fed&#8217;s most recent meeting will be released on Wednesday, which could<br>impact the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-xlarge-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technical Picture <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mortgage Bonds experienced a strong rally last week, though they surrendered some of those gains on Friday and closed the<br>week below a key resistance level at 100.46. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped sharply over the course of the week,<br>ending Friday&#8217;s session struggling to stay beneath the 4% threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you had any questions, please feel free to <a href=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/\">contact me! <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of March 31, 2025 in Review March saw stronger-than-expected job growth, but the labor sector continues to deliver mixed messages. However, this news was overshadowed by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Read on for these updates and more. Global Reciprocal Tariffs Announced Last week, President Trump announced a new 10% &#8220;baseline&#8221; tariff on imports, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tariffs Announced, Labor Data Surprises - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"March saw stronger-than-expected job growth, but the labor sector continues to deliver mixed messages. 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