{"id":595385,"date":"2025-05-27T23:38:33","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T23:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595385"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:05","slug":"april-home-sales-show-mixed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/05\/27\/april-home-sales-show-mixed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"April Home Sales Show Mixed Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Week of May 19, 2025 in Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Housing showed mixed signals in April, with existing home closings disappointing while new home contracts hit a three year high. Job market data revealed similar contrasts: new unemployment claims remained low, but ongoing claims reached their second highest level since late 2021. Continue reading for more details. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Existing Home Sales Sink to 7-Month Low <\/li>\n\n\n\n
New Home Sales Surge Past Expectations<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Existing Home Sales Sink to 7-Month Low<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
April’s existing home closings disappointed, dropping 0.5% from March to an annual rate of 4 million units \u2013 the lowest since September and the weakest April since 2009. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite economists forecasting better numbers based on March’s strong contract signings (Pending Home Sales +6.1% MoM), closings failed to materialize as expected in April. The culprit? A rising cancellation rate affecting 7% of sales in April, potentially explaining the disconnect between strong contract signings and actual closings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
These cancellations may be linked to last month’s stock market volatility, with buyers either losing funds earmarked for purchases or hesitating to sell investments during a market downturn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> While inventory grew to 1.45 million units (up 9% monthly and 20.8% yearly), current supply remains well below pre-pandemic levels and far from the 4 million units available during the housing bubble. This persistent shortage, combined with pent-up demand, points to continued home price appreciation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
New Home Sales Surge Past Expectations <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
New home contracts jumped 10.9% in April, marking the second straight monthly increase. Sales reached 743,000 annual units \u2013 a three-year high that significantly outpaced analyst projections of 692,000. Year-over-year growth hit 3.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the median price dropping 2% to $407,200 compared to April 2024, this doesn’t signal declining home values nationwide. The median price simply represents the middle point of all homes sold, which fluctuates based on which homes are selling. More transactions occurred in the South’s relatively more affordable markets this April than last year, pulling the median figure down even as prices appreciated across the country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> While inventory stood at 504,000 new homes at the end of April (slightly below March\u2019s 507,000), only 117,000 were completed and move-in ready. The remaining homes were either under construction or not yet started. The market still needs more available supply to meet buyer demand, particularly given the historic shortage of existing homes for sale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Weekly initial jobless claims dipped slightly by 2,000 to 227,000, staying at historically low levels. However, continuing unemployment claims rose by 36,000 to 1.903 million, marking their second highest level since November 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Continuing claims have consistently remained above 1.8 million each week for nearly a year, and have surpassed 1.9 million twice in just the past month. This trend indicates job seekers are spending longer periods between jobs. Companies have reduced their hiring pace as they exercise caution amid economic uncertainty and worries about how potential tariffs might affect business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Family Hack of the Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Planning a summer road trip or beach day? These homemade granola bars from Food Network are the perfect grab-and go breakfast or convenient snack to pack along! <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Butter an 8×12-inch baking dish and line with parchment paper. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Combine 2 cups old-fashioned oats, 1 cup sliced almonds, and 1 cup shredded coconut on a sheet pan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Bake for 10-12 minutes, stirring occasionally, until lightly browned. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Transfer toasted mixture to a large bowl and stir in 1\/2 cup toasted wheat germ.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Reduce oven to 300 degrees Fahrenheit. In a small saucepan, combine 3 tablespoons unsalted butter, 2\/3 cup honey, 1\/4 cup lightly packed brown sugar, 1 1\/2 teaspoons vanilla, and 1\/4 teaspoon kosher salt. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Bring to a boil over medium heat, stirring for one minute. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Pour hot mixture over oats and add 1\/2 cup each of chopped dates, dried apricots, and dried cranberries. Stir thoroughly. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Spread mixture into prepared pan, pressing down evenly. Bake for 25-30 minutes until light golden brown. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Allow to cool completely (2-3 hours) before cutting into bars.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
What to Look for This Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
This week’s economic calendar features key housing indicators, with home price appreciation data arriving Tuesday and April’s Pending Home Sales report on Thursday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting will be released on Wednesday, which could impact the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thursday also brings the weekly jobless claims numbers and the revised Q1 GDP reading \u2013 a figure that investors are watching closely after initial estimates showed the economy contracting by 0.3%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wrapping up the week, Friday delivers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for April, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Technical Picture <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mortgage Bonds closed last week above the 100.43 support level, with potential to climb further before hitting resistance at 100.66. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday in the middle of its broad trading range, with support at 4.41% and resistance overhead at 4.59%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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