{"id":595524,"date":"2025-09-03T23:43:18","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T23:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595524"},"modified":"2025-09-08T19:39:04","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T19:39:04","slug":"inflation-meets-estimates-rate-cut-still-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/03\/inflation-meets-estimates-rate-cut-still-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Meets Estimates, Rate Cut Still Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Week of August 25, 2025 in Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>The latest inflation data leaves the door open for a rate cut at the Fed\u2019s upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, signed contracts for new and existing homes dipped slightly from June to July. Home prices are still up compared to last year, though growth is slowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Read on for the key takeaways.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation Aligns with Estimates, Keeping Rate Cut in Play<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New Home Sales Beat Forecasts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual Home Price Growth Cools Slightly<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additional Highlights: Housing, Growth and Unemployment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Family Hack of the Week<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What to Look for This Week<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Technical Picture<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Inflation Aligns with Estimates, Keeping Rate Cut in Play<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"756\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Personal-Consumption-Expenditures-9.3.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595530\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Personal-Consumption-Expenditures-9.3.25.png 756w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Personal-Consumption-Expenditures-9.3.25-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest inflation data is in, and it largely matched expectations. According to July\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, overall inflation rose 0.2% for the month, bringing the annual rate to 2.6%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE (which excludes food and energy), rose 0.3% in July and now stands at 2.9% year-over-year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> With a dual mandate of price stability and full employment, the Fed must tread carefully. Persistent inflation may keep rates higher for longer, but weakening economic indicators could shift their stance toward easing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently noted that the Fed is getting closer to cutting rates, but he emphasized that upcoming data will be key. Since this latest inflation report brought no surprises, a rate cut remains a viable option at the Fed\u2019s next meeting on September 17. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just as a quick reminder: When the Fed adjusts interest rates, it\u2019s specifically targeting the Fed Funds Rate \u2013 a short-term rate used for overnight lending between banks. While this rate influences borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages, it doesn\u2019t directly set long-term mortgage rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next up: All eyes are now on the August jobs report, due out September 5, which could play a key role in shaping the Fed\u2019s next move. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New Home Sales Beat Forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"763\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/New-Home-Sales-9.3.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595531\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/New-Home-Sales-9.3.25.png 763w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/New-Home-Sales-9.3.25-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 763px) 100vw, 763px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New home sales dipped slightly in July, falling 0.6% from June to an annual pace of 652,000 units. However, the number  was above expectations, and June\u2019s sales were revised up from 627,000 to 656,000. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There were 499,000 new homes on the market at the end of July, close to the highest levels since 2007. But only 121,000 of those homes are finished and ready to move into. The rest are still under construction or haven\u2019t been started yet. So, while the total inventory looks high, the number of homes actually available now is still limited. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also worth noting: the median new home price was $403,800, down 0.8% from June and 5.9% compared to last year. The median means half of the homes sold were priced above this number, and half were below. The drop in median price was largely due to a higher share of lower-priced homes being sold in July, which pulled the overall median down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line? <\/strong>This data reflects contracts signed in July \u2013 before mortgage rates began to drop. Since then, homebuilders have reported more buyer traffic, so future reports may show stronger sales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Annual Home Price Growth Cools Slightly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"753\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Case-Shriller-Home-Price-Index-9.3.25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-595532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Case-Shriller-Home-Price-Index-9.3.25.png 753w, https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Case-Shriller-Home-Price-Index-9.3.25-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 753px) 100vw, 753px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Case-Shiller Home Price Index \u2013 often considered the \u201cgold standard\u201d for tracking home values \u2013 showed home prices rose 0.1% from May to June before seasonal adjustments, but dipped 0.3% after. This is typical for spring, when seasonal adjustments smooth out expected increases, but because this year\u2019s gains were smaller than usual, the adjusted numbers showed a slight decline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Year over year, national home prices are up 1.9%, slightly slower than May\u2019s 2.3% growth. Big cities continue to lead, with the 10- city index up 2.6% and the 20-city index up 2.1%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The FHFA Index showed similar results: nearly flat month over month (-0.02% unadjusted, -0.2% adjusted), and a 2.6% gain compared to last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s the bottom line?<\/strong> Home prices are still rising compared to a year ago, though at a slower pace. However, if mortgage rates keep trending lower, stronger buyer demand could push price growth higher again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Additional Highlights: Housing, Growth and Unemployment <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Housing Market Activity Slows:<\/strong> Pending Home Sales (signed contracts for existing homes) slipped 0.4% in July compared to June, falling short of expectations. However, they were still 0.7% higher than a year ago. According to the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae, buyers remain cautious despite modest improvements in inventory and borrowing conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Economic Growth Rebounds:<\/strong> The U.S. economy grew by 3.3% in Q2 2025, revised up from the initial 3.0% estimate. This marks a strong turnaround from the 0.5% decline in Q1, which was largely due to a surge in imports as businesses stocked up ahead of potential tariffs. Since imports subtract from GDP, fewer imports in Q2 helped lift overall growth. So far, the economy is averaging 1.4% growth for the first half of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Labor Sector Under Pressure:<\/strong> New unemployment claims edged down to 229,000, but continuing claims remain elevated at 1.954 million. They&#8217;ve stayed above 1.9 million since mid-May, indicating more people are remaining unemployed for longer. Since unemployment benefits typically last 26 weeks, a rise in continuing claims as those benefits expire suggest a slowdown in hiring activity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Family Hack of the Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Football is back, and these Spiced Mixed Nuts and Pretzels from Food Network make the perfect gameday snack, yielding about 4 cups. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Start by mixing the spice blend: combine 3 tablespoons of sugar, 1 1\/2 teaspoons paprika, 1 1\/2 teaspoons minced fresh thyme, 3\/4 teaspoon ground mustard, 1\/4 teaspoon ground cinnamon, 1 1\/2 teaspoons kosher salt, and 1\/4 teaspoon pepper in a small bowl. Set aside. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit and lightly oil a rimmed baking sheet with vegetable or canola oil. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In a large bowl, whisk 1 large egg white until frothy. Add 1 1\/2 cups of mini pretzels along with 1 cup each of unsalted raw cashews, peanuts, pecans, and walnuts. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Toss to coat, then add the spice mixture and toss again. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spread the mixture in an even layer on the prepared baking sheet and bake for 15-20 minutes, stirring occasionally, until golden brown. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Let cool completely on the baking sheet, then transfer to a serving bowl and enjoy. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What to Look for This Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A busy week of labor market updates is scheduled starting with job openings data on Wednesday. ADP private payroll figures for August and the latest unemployment claims follow on Thursday. Friday brings the comprehensive employment report for August, which includes non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technical Picture <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mortgage bonds ended last week just below resistance at 102.23. If they can break above that level, there\u2019s room for further gains before the next ceiling at 102.5. The 10-year Treasury yield is also trading in a wide range, between 4.2% and 4.288%. This week\u2019s job market data will be key \u2013 weaker reports could help push both yields and mortgage rates lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you had any questions, please feel free to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vipmtginc.com\/loan-officer\/drew-dodds\/\">contact me!<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of August 25, 2025 in Review The latest inflation data leaves the door open for a rate cut at the Fed\u2019s upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, signed contracts for new and existing homes dipped slightly from June to July. Home prices are still up compared to last year, though growth is slowing. Inflation Aligns with Estimates, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation Meets Estimates, Rate Cut Still Likely - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest inflation data leaves the door open for a rate cut at the Fed\u2019s upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, signed contracts for new and existing homes dipped slightly from June to July. 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