{"id":595590,"date":"2025-12-10T18:59:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T18:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/?p=595590"},"modified":"2025-12-10T18:59:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T18:59:13","slug":"weekly-mortgage-update-november-labor-weakness-fed-rate-cut-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drewdodds.vipmtginc.com\/blog\/2025\/12\/10\/weekly-mortgage-update-november-labor-weakness-fed-rate-cut-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Mortgage Market Update: Labor Weakness Raises Odds of a Fed Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we move into December, mortgage markets remain sensitive to shifting economic signals\u2014especially in labor and inflation data. For new readers, this weekly series provides a high-level overview of mortgage rate activity and the key economic forces shaping rate movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mortgage Rate Snapshot<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

30-Year Fixed (0 points)<\/strong>
Since Monday, December 1st, the market rate has moved 0.125% higher<\/strong>. While the increase is modest, it reflects ongoing volatility as investors weigh weakening labor data against the Federal Reserve\u2019s next steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

November Labor Data: A Sharp Slowdown<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Economic indicators last week painted a picture of a noticeably cooler labor market, driven largely by small-business weakness, elevated layoffs, and slowing wage growth. These conditions increase the likelihood\u2014but not the guarantee\u2014of a future Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private Payrolls (ADP Report)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

November\u2019s ADP report delivered a softer-than-expected reading:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • The private sector lost 32,000 jobs<\/strong> in November.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Small businesses were hit hardest<\/strong>, cutting a significant 120,000 jobs<\/strong>, while medium and large employers added modest gains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Job losses were broad-based across most industries, with only education\/health (+33k)<\/strong> and leisure\/hospitality (+13k)<\/strong> showing growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The wage-growth gap between job switchers and job stayers has narrowed to its smallest margin in five years\u2014a sign that hiring competitiveness is cooling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Over the past four months, the labor market has shed 17,000 jobs<\/strong>, with hiring described as \u201cchoppy\u201d<\/strong> and inconsistent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • With official government labor data still delayed, these weak ADP figures increase pressure on the Fed as they consider their next policy move.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Jobless Claims & Layoffs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Additional labor indicators confirm the softening trend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Initial jobless claims fell to 191,000<\/strong>, though the decline was influenced by holiday timing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.939 million<\/strong>, indicating slower rehiring and longer job searches.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • November saw 71,000 layoffs<\/strong>, a 24% increase year-over-year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Year-to-date layoffs stand at 1.17 million<\/strong>, among the highest figures since 1993.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Hiring plans have dropped to their weakest level since 2010<\/strong>, and seasonal hiring is pacing at its slowest since 2012.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n\n\n\n

      Inflation Update: PCE Trends Support Possible Fed Action<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

      Inflation continues to moderate in a direction the Fed wants to see:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Headline PCE rose 0.3%<\/strong> in November, with annual inflation at 2.8%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Core PCE<\/strong>\u2014the Fed\u2019s preferred measure\u2014rose 0.2%<\/strong>, cooling to 2.8% year-over-year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • With inflation largely in line with expectations, the data provides cover for potential rate relief.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
        \n\n\n\n

        What\u2019s Ahead: A Pivotal Fed Meeting This Week<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

        This week brings several important developments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • Federal Reserve Meeting:<\/strong> The Fed will decide whether to hold policy steady or introduce another rate cut based on the latest economic signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Delayed JOLTS Report (Tuesday):<\/strong> Offers insight into job openings and labor demand once published.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday):<\/strong> Will provide another read on layoffs and rehiring trends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          Together, these data points will help shape expectations for mortgage rate movement through the remainder of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n

          We\u2019re Here to Help<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

          As always, our team is here to support you, answer questions, and help you navigate opportunities as the market evolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Cheers,<\/strong>
          Drew & Team<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          As we move into December, mortgage markets remain sensitive to shifting economic signals\u2014especially in labor and inflation data. For new readers, this weekly series provides a high-level overview of mortgage rate activity and the key economic forces shaping rate movement. Mortgage Rate Snapshot 30-Year Fixed (0 points)Since Monday, December 1st, the market rate has moved […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":595591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter"],"yoast_head":"\nWeekly Mortgage Market Update: Labor Weakness Raises Odds of a Fed Rate Cut - Drew Dodds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest weekly mortgage update highlights rising rates, sharp November labor market weakness, elevated layoffs, and moderating inflation\u2014all increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of this week\u2019s rate decision. 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